Zipf's Law. Yes, it's real, and yes, it's really cool.
Feb 8, 2017 21:43:07 GMT -6
Nugget, bonhommearmonica, and 2 more like this
Post by Charles1952 on Feb 8, 2017 21:43:07 GMT -6
I ran across an article dealing with the political influence of large American cities. Don't worry, I'm not going to talk about that.
The fellows who did a study on the growth of cities noted that, while Mega-cities (think New York, Chicago, LA, etc) were gaining many more people than the small cities, towns, etc., they were surprised to learn that the rate of growth across the country was nearly identical for the large cities, small cities, and large towns.
Did it work in their analysis?
That's all well and good for cities in the developed US after the automobile and the Industrial Revolution, "But wait! There's more!"
And that, to me, is fascinating. A universal law about human behavior? All I can say is, Wow! But did you think that was all? It doesn't just deal with human behavior.
I still haven't been able to absorb this yet, but I hope I've lived up to the headline here and that you're as awestruck as I am.
www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/02/06/the_us_megalopolis_isnt_as_politically_powerful_as_you_think_132990.html
The fellows who did a study on the growth of cities noted that, while Mega-cities (think New York, Chicago, LA, etc) were gaining many more people than the small cities, towns, etc., they were surprised to learn that the rate of growth across the country was nearly identical for the large cities, small cities, and large towns.
When Sean Trende and I initially started digging into these patterns in our Election Review series, we thought it was a little weird. Neither of us could come up with a reason why the distribution of the population should be so constant over multiple decades of social and economic change. But then a reader pointed us to a little-known mathematical mystery called Zipf’s Law.
... it basically states that if you take a specific country, count the number of cities at a certain population level and then count the number of cities with twice that population, the former number will often be close to double the latter.
... it basically states that if you take a specific country, count the number of cities at a certain population level and then count the number of cities with twice that population, the former number will often be close to double the latter.
Did it work in their analysis?
For example, the 2010 population figures show that there were 51 metro areas with a population of over 1 million residents. Given that, Zipf’s Law might predict that there would be 102 metro areas with half that population -- 500,000. There were 104. Similarly, there were nine cities with a population over 5 million, so Zipf’s law would predict that there would be 18 cities with 2.5 million or more residents. There were 21.
And it works for other factors – not just doubles and halves. In 2010 there were 17 metro areas with a population of 3 million or more, so Zipf’s Law would predict that there would be 51 cities with 1 million or more people (because 1 million is a third of 3 million, we multiply 17 by 3 and get 51). There were exactly 51 such cities.
And it works for other factors – not just doubles and halves. In 2010 there were 17 metro areas with a population of 3 million or more, so Zipf’s Law would predict that there would be 51 cities with 1 million or more people (because 1 million is a third of 3 million, we multiply 17 by 3 and get 51). There were exactly 51 such cities.
That's all well and good for cities in the developed US after the automobile and the Industrial Revolution, "But wait! There's more!"
Zipf’s Law is eerie because it’s universal. It holds for cities in Germany, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Russia as well as the United States. Data from India in 1911, Argentina in 1860, China in the mid-19th century and the United States as early as 1790 show that Zipf’s Law also holds across eras. In other words, Zipf’s Law might be illuminating something universal about how all humans – despite being in different eras and on different continents – tend to build modern cities.
And that, to me, is fascinating. A universal law about human behavior? All I can say is, Wow! But did you think that was all? It doesn't just deal with human behavior.
It gets weirder. The specific mathematical form of Zipf’s Law wasn’t discovered by urbanists or political scientists – it comes from linguistics. The law uses the exact same math to show that in most languages, the most used word (“the” in English) appears about twice as often as the second most frequently used word (“of”), three times as frequently as the third most frequent word, etc. Zipf’s Law also appears in economics, biology and a whole host of other disciplines.
I still haven't been able to absorb this yet, but I hope I've lived up to the headline here and that you're as awestruck as I am.
www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/02/06/the_us_megalopolis_isnt_as_politically_powerful_as_you_think_132990.html