Possible Scenarios & Threat Analysis for Emergency Disasters
Nov 7, 2016 7:22:28 GMT -6
Nugget, Nyiah, and 1 more like this
Post by Michigan Swamp Buck on Nov 7, 2016 7:22:28 GMT -6
With all the potential scenarios to consider for survival prepping, I've been making notes to help me decide how to approach preparing for almost any scenario. This will be a long thread and it relates to my location specifically, but I'm putting it out there to get feedback. I may eventually put a similar thread on the other side, but as with most of my thread postings, I'm putting it on Hernando's first.
I start off listing and describing the most likely scenarios to prep for and end with a general threat analysis afterward. I don't have the means or inclination to go all out in my preps, so I conclude with a basic minimal plan. It is an incomplete outline, so feel free to suggest anything I haven't covered. I'm not including any list for prep items at this point, but feel free to chime in on that subject as well.
Possible Scenarios and Threat Analysis for Emergency Disasters
Natural Disasters
Hurricanes, Tsunamis, Storms and Floods -
Based on Hurricane Katrina data, 90 percent of the New Orleans city population (pop. of 1,337,726 in 2000) obeyed evacuation orders, they had the means to leave and a place to go to. Based on the 2000 census, over one million people left the area as refugees before the storm hit (as many as 1,200,000). A large number of the remaining 10 percent were the holdouts trapped at home or in shelters. By the day before the storm, over 100,000 people remained in the city, with 20,000 taking shelter at the Louisiana Superdome, meaning at least one fifth (20%) of those not evacuated took public shelter. Of the 80% remaining holdouts, many engaged in looting and other criminal acts.
The evacuation orders began just two days before Katrina hit shore. The local citizens started preparing just 3 or 4 days before the storm hit. After the storm, most of the city's major roads were damaged. The only route out of the city was east on the Crescent City Connection bridge. Hurricane survivors who attempted to escape from New Orleans by walking over the Crescent City bridge over the Mississippi River were turned back at gunpoint by City of Gretna Police, along with Crescent City Connection Police and Jefferson Parish Sheriff's deputies, who set up a roadblock on the bridge in the days following the hurricane.
When New Orleans had widespread flooding, it was without power and had catastrophic damage in some residential and business areas. All local television stations were disrupted. Many telephones, including most cell phones, and Internet access were out because of line breaks, destruction of base stations, or power failures. However, the Internet became an important means of communicating information to evacuees with news networks citing blogs for their reports. Amateur radio operators provided tactical and emergency communications and handled health-and-welfare enquiries. By one week later, a temporary communications hub was set up at the Hyatt Hotel in downtown New Orleans.
In the aftermath, looting was widespread with many reported instances being survivors scavenging necessary supplies such as food, water, clothing, and shelter. Most of the looting was taking place in full view of passing National Guard trucks and police cruisers. There were also reports of violence, shooting against rescuers, murder and rape.
In one instance there was the emptying of an entire Walmart. At a Walgreen’s in the French Quarter, people were running out with grocery baskets and coolers full of soft drinks, chips and diapers. On Canal Street, the main thoroughfare in the central business district, people looted several clothing and jewellery stores.
Some instances of looting were found to have been carried out by a number of NOPD officers. At a drug store on Canal St, two police officers with pump shotguns stood guard as workers from the Ritz-Carlton Hotel across the street looted laundry bins full of medications, snack foods and bottled water. “This is for the sick,” Officer Jeff Jacob said. “We can commandeer whatever we see fit, whatever is necessary to maintain law.”
One-third of New Orleans police officers deserted the city in the days before the storm, many of them escaping in department-owned patrol cars, stretching law enforcement thin. Several NOPD officers were arrested weeks after Katrina for vehicle theft. Reports documented numerous instances of police opening fire on citizens during the flooding, and 16 officers have been charged with crimes, including the shooting deaths of three people. Two days after the storm, New Orleans's 1,500-member police force was ordered to abandon search and rescue missions and turn its attention toward controlling the widespread looting. The city also ordered a mandatory curfew.
Droughts and wildfires -
Droughts and wildfire are a real concern in our area. Droughts will disrupt argiculture, reduce harvests, cause wild life to migrate to available water sources, and promote wildfires. Fires without permit are the most likely risk and common with people burning leaves and using a burn bin, in additon to making bonfires and campfires. Summer through fall is higher risk with dry conditions and more people out camping. Our area is densely wooded so with the build up of brush, leaves and debris, it makes for prime wildfire country. The Jackpine forests nearby are naturally prone to wildfires driving the risks even higher.
If a wildfire occurred in our area, we would face an eminent threat requiring an immediate bug out. The best bet would be using the vehicle to bug out carrying along the three weeks of supplies. Your back pack should be included and available in the vehicle to walk away from the fire if necessary. If there is time before bugging out, bury important items for later retrieval.
Preventative measures like clearing trees, brush, leaves and debris from around your home should be taken long before hand. Keep preps ready and store other important items safely in fire proof conditions. Having a radio/scanner to monitor the local fire fighters is a must.
Earthquakes -
Earthquakes in our area are few and of very low intensity. A major earthquake is almost completely out of the question for the Great Lakes area, however, if the New Madrid Fault line down south of us lets loose, there would be minor damages in Michigan. If there is an influx of refugees, it would take as little as a week or as much as a month to relocate to other areas with few going this far north.
A large earthquake would disrupt the electrical grid and communications. Travel in and out of affected areas would be difficult. Other disruptions would occur depending on what area was hit and how hard it was hit.
Solar Coronal Mass Ejection Electro-Magnetic Pulse
A solar coronal mass ejection EMP would be predicable unless the event suddenly erupted on the earth facing side of the sun. If a powerful CME occurs on the Sun's equator farthest on it's rotation from facing the earth, given the Earth revolves around the Sun in the same direction, we would have more than 25 days for the earth to be hit. Of course, a CME causing a powerful solar EMP is unpredictable and could hit the Earth any anytime with little or no warning. NASA could issue a "CME Watch" warning with an hour's notice at best.
"A CME will shoot pretty much straight out from the Sun, and there’s always a good chance that the Earth won’t end up in its path. If a CME is coming straight at us, it’ll first hit NASA’s ACE satellite . . . roughly a million miles in front of the Earth. If that happens, we’ve got anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour before a cloud of plasma rains down from above . . ."
If a CME (or HANE - see below) created a massive EMP, power would be out and complete repairs would take years. Almost everything with electronics will get damaged beyond use unless they have been protected by a "Faraday Cage" or other grounded shielding. Any wiring will be fried, including your house wiring, so anything plugged in the wall socket will fry. Most vehicles will need repairs to function. It is likely that a massive CME would have some warning signs (like increased solar activity) early enough to take protective measures days in advance.
The Carrington Event
"The ground currents induced by large geomagnetic storms can melt the copper windings of transformers that lie at the heart of power distribution systems. If this happens, it can lead to massive power outages. And because our power grid has grown much more interconnected over time, the effects of such an outage today could be spread far and wide."
The lights would of course go out, as would the internet, and any device that draws current from the wall. In places with electronically-controlled municipal water supplies — like most modern cities — toilets and sewage treatment systems would stop working. Heating and AC would fail. Perishable food and medication would be lost. ATMs would be useless. Gas pumps would go offline . . . GPS technology would also be knocked out. Said Grunman" (Disabled Satellites)
Note: See High Altitude Nuclear Explosion EMP below for more information.
Man Made Disasters
Economic collapse -
A good example of an economic collapse is the current situation in Venezuela that has been on going for over ten years now. The following time line of events illustrates the Venezuelan crash and then compares it to the U.S. (I posted this here before in it's own thread.)
The Venezuelan government creates over budget projects that fail and end up causing big problems for the people due to bad planning, mismanagement and corruption.
They shift the blame on political opponents and even the citizens. They make it the citizen's problem to deal with through draconian laws and other measures while doing little or nothing to address the real causes of these problems. Such measures include disarming the citizens to prevent the growing public unrest from becoming an armed revolt.
After the shit hits the fan, the government of Venezuela increases the propaganda and blames a foreign country (the U.S.A. no less) and continues to deflect from the real source of the blame. All the while they continue to do nothing to fix the problems.
When things get really out of hand and the propaganda no longer works, the government brings out more lies, and gives the call to "remain calm" while they confiscate food from the people by force and redistribute it to the government, military and police.
With out of control inflation, supply lines broken down, and food riots the daily routine for the common citizens, the Venezuelan government turns to forced labor laws to enslave the able bodied population.
Total collapse, violent revolution, martial law, intervention by foreign powers, or invasion is all that I can see as the end results that can be expected after this point. And it looks like the U.S. is about halfway through that list right now.
It's obvious the United States acquired a national debt of 19+ trillion through mismanagement and corruption. I don't see solutions coming out of Washington DC soon.
Blaming the problems on political opponents, have at look at the election politics lately. The federal government isn't reducing any laws, just pumping out more to stifle the economy and reduce our freedoms. There is only more talk about gun bans and eliminating the 2nd amendment, but it's not quite there yet.
Our government is in another cold war with Russia, plus we still have China and N. Korea along with the usual suspects in the war on terror to deflect blame. All the while our government does next to nothing to fix the domestic problems.
A nation wide gun ban and confiscation is the next step before we start down through the rest of that list. If the timing is similar, then we only have about 3 to 5 years before we find we are slaves to our government.
War with world superpower -
High Attitude Nuclear Explosion EMP
The biggest threat HANE poses to our infrastructure is to our power grid. The world is coated with a mesh of power wiring, stretching over hundreds of miles of land . . . Local substations would burn out, street lighting would fry, circuit breakers would pop, and fuses would blow . . . The servers that host anything worth accessing would be down anyway, and it’d be likely that you couldn’t boot your PC or charge your laptop, due to lack of power. Even when sections of the power grid come back online, the demand would be massive, causing further outages and brown-outs.
According to a review for the US Energy Research and Development Administration, EMP damage was recorded almost a thousand miles away:
“Starfish produced the largest fields of the high-altitude detonations; they caused outages of the series-connected street-lighting systems of Oahu (Hawaii), probable failure of a microwave repeating station on Kauai, failure of the input stages of ionospheric sounders and damage to rectifiers in communication receivers. Other than the failure of the microwave link, no problem was noted in the telephone system.” (land line?)
"A high-altitude detonation of moderate strength (yield) is capable of producing field amplitudes of up to 50,000 volts per metre at ground levels, over a diameter of thousands of miles, as illustrated in Fig. 3. This field couples into all metallic structures (pipes, wires, rain gutters and especially antennas) and may burn out sensitive front-end electronic components or at least cause internal disruptions to normal operation."
Internet Hacking Attacks
This is a current concern for our government and information can change daily. More information is needed here, but it can be safe to assume that the infrastructure damage can be as serious as an EMP or massive storm.
Civil unrest, rebellions, and domestic war -
Riots are local events that occur in certain areas due to a specific issue. The main thing about a riot is that there is a large gathering of people and something touches it off. Riots could grow to become a regional rebellion that in turn could become an all out civil war. The 1968 riots caused by the assassination of Dr Martin Luther King, occurred in 10 major cities and lasted a total of ten days.
A riot can flare up in an afternoon and consume a whole city by the following day. Local law enforcement will be on scene first followed shortly after by the National Guard. By day four the military will be showing up. Rioting normally lasts a day or two but can last up to a week before order is restored. Although a riot can happen almost anywhere, they occur often at sporting events and in urban areas with racial tensions.
A rebellion can be nothing more than a local riot that lasts a day or two, or it could be regional and could go for months or more than a year. It's possible that there are few causalities or, if large enough, many may be killed. Services in the locality or the region of a rebellion will be disrupted to the degree of the level of unrest.
During the 1990 Native American Oka Crisis, I was in contact with a local native that had helped transport supplies across to Canada. I was told that one strategy might be to loosen the bolts on the high tension electrical service towers, causing them to topple and shut down the grid. It is relatively easy for a rebel to damage fiber optic cables, phone lines and cell towers to shut down communications. At the very least the area in conflict will be a no-go area with major roads being blocked by insurgents as well as law enforcement and the military. Martial law will be instated regionally or if the rebellion is large enough, nationally.
A domestic war would be based on some political issue(s) to become a race or class war, or anti-establishment war that ultimately becomes a civil war or revolution. A rebellion that grows into an internal war would be potentially long lasting with high casualties and massive infrastructure damage. For gauging what to expect in such a scenario, the U.S. Civil War is the best example of such a hardcore domestic war.
It may be necessary to pick sides in a civil war scenario or become a refugee in another country. The closest and most logical country to relocate to would be Canada as a war refugee. At that point your legal status would be world refugee making you entitled to a citizen of the world type passport, free to travel to any other country.
Terrorist attacks -
Unless well planned, coordinated and funded, most terror attacks are smaller scale localized events. Depending on what terror groups announce what their next plans are, a terror attack can be any number of targets involving any level of destruction and loss of life.
The best strategy is to stay away from events with big crowds or areas that are known targets. Airports, train or subway stations, and large entertainment venues are typical targets lately. Government buildings and properties as well as any factories that supply them should also be shunned. Common sense should keep most people safe from a terror attack.
Destructive accidents & declining infrastructure -
There are a number of large scale accidents that could disrupt our lives and some that go FUBAR. It seems to be a trend lately for trains to derail or crash, pipelines to burst or leak, and companies that "accidentally" release hazardous materials.
Damages to the oil and gasoline supply infrastructure leads to regional shortages and price spikes. Damage to the electrical infrastructure can take out service in numerous states at the same time. A train derailment or hazardous materials leak and cause evacuations or even relocation at a local level.
It seems that one cause is that profit margins and tight budgets lead to less expenditures on safety checks and preventative maintenance. Another contributing factor is the cutting of corners on cheaply produced products and materials from overseas. This is causing a rash of recalls on big ticket items like automobiles and appliances made dangerous by design.
Combination Disasters
I've done no research into this area yet.
Threat Analysis
Regardless if the disaster is man made, natural, or both, some things can be certain to happen. With large local or regional disasters, disruptions will last for as little as a week or a far longer time in extreme events. If there is a call to evacuate, be ready to leave the area early. Outside of widespread infrastructure damage, the main concern with our area is from local threats first and then getting over run with refugees and a government presence. Initially, such a government presence would likely involve local law enforcement and emergency services, then the National Guard and finally a military presence.
Local Threats:
The first priority threat would be the dangers associated with a large scale infrastructure damaging disaster and it's effects. Outside of the obvious dangers, human beings pose the next greatest threat in an emergency crisis.
Locally, things could turn ugly fast, likely starting with food riot events at grocery stores, when people rush to buy needed supplies once it becomes clear there is a disaster. When this occurs, looting and vandalism will quickly follow with homes becoming targeted a day or two after local stores have been ransacked and emptied. This may afford up to a 3 day window to get ready for trouble.
Not many friends and neighbors can be trusted or relied upon in a disaster. Those who choose to continue to be civilized and follow law and order can be considered true Civilians. If things got bad enough, criminally minded residents would become completely lawless. These Outlaws would try to take advantage of the situation immediately. After a time, perhaps a week, self preservation would begin to influence the normally law abiding but unprepared citizens.
Desperation would then turn them to crime and they would become dangerous Desperados.
Most local outlaws and desperados will likely cause trouble within a few miles of where they live. Knowing the area and the residents well, they would likely be thieves that come in the night. However, if organized they would become Gangsters, the home raiding invaders and/or protection racketeers demanding money or goods.
Another consideration is rogue law enforcement officers (Rogue LEOs), those officers who engage in illegal activities or operate under extreme or unconstitutional orders. Based on Katrina, one third of the local police force may flee from their duties and become AWOL LEOs. Note: Hurricane Katrina was a disaster that people had close to a week to prepare for. If a disaster hits without warning, it could take a little longer for these things to occur and probably in smaller numbers at first.
Depending on your proximity to hot spots, you may have 1 to 3 days to bug in properly and have your exit strategy ready to roll. If prepared enough, there may be enough time to organize with your neighbors and extend security measures for bugging in your immediate community. A crisis/disaster emergency would be the prefect situation to try to convince friends and neighbors to organize and become Allies.
It is extremely important to plan organizing locals ahead of time, but it may take the shit to start hitting the fan before you would be taken seriously. Personally make plans for organizing the community anyway and talk to the prepper types before the crisis. If you're plans are solid, your friends and neighbors are more likely to listen and contribute to the plan.
There may be a last minute opportunity to do some shopping, but only at the least likely stores to get mobbed. It would be a good idea to stop by the local sporting goods or hardware stores first for extra ammo and bug-out supplies. Other stores would be the local farmer's co-op, farmer's market or a local farmer that sells food like eggs and produce. Having a good inventory of prepping goods at home will help determine what supplies may be needed at the last minute.
Regional Threats:
Refugees. Grand Rapids, Detroit and Chicago would be the first big cities to begin relocating here if there were emergency disasters in their areas. Considering how things progress in areas hit by hurricanes, the time that refugees begin arriving in our area may be about one to three days. Based on traffic tie ups after evacuations during hurricane Floyd, at the very least, a drive would take four or more hours from Grand Rapids and sixteen plus from Detroit or Chicago. Note: It's important to remember that the hurricane refugees had at least a few days warning. Sudden disasters that come without warning would likely increase travel times with a lower volume of refugees.
Initially, in the urban areas, there would be a large number of people making a mad scramble to the stores with some people leaving the area just ahead of the traffic jams. I would suspect that wealthy people, survivalists, preppers, hunters and outdoors men, would be the first to leave ahead of the pack. This First Wave, would probably keep heading north with only a small percentage of those (mostly who own recreational properties here) staying in the area.
Depending on the time of year, many Retirees (we call snow birds) would be either in their winter homes down south, or here for the summer. Those people are better known in the community and are not a threat but are more vulnerable and potentially victims. Snow birds would be south around 6 months, November through April, and here for the other 6 months, May through October.
With huge traffic jams slowing the exodus from the cities, the normally 45 minute drive from Grand Rapids would become many hours long. I would think that the mostly under prepared refugees would be in our area as early as four hours after a disaster and keep coming for about 3 days after that until the government steps in and tries to control the situation in the cities. People from as far away as Detroit and Chicago would start to arrive in about a day and would be less predictable than the GR refugees.
If bugging out is absolutely necessary, then you have about 3 hours to prepare to leave and get a little head start on the first wave of refugees. If bugging in seems more likely, you have around 3 days to get fully prepared. You should have a bare minimum of threes weeks supplies at home to bug in or to be ready to bug out with the car.
Local Government:
Local and state law enforcement (LEO) and emergency services (EMS) would kick in immediately but likely be too overwhelmed to help outside of priority events. This leaves a potential lawless gap during the time it takes for larger government agencies to gain control. In the cities, that initial lawless gap would last three or more days with rural areas taking somewhat longer.
The main consideration here is with the police, emergency and fire departments being overloaded with calls and unable to give you proper assistance. Expect to handle any of the situations that require these services. Another possible threat is rogue LEOs who engage in criminal activity or who are under unconstitutional orders. It would be best to avoid the police and give them as little information as possible when you can't avoid them.
Federal Government:
Any need for the Federal Government to get involved in a crisis is a huge "reg flag" sign. When the Feds, the Guard or the Army shows up to the party, it is time to "go on the camping trip".
Federal Agencies -
Federal agencies like FEMA, the CDC, or even the U.S. Forest Service are to be avoided. If you are in a good position to remain safe, don't go to them, it could mean getting relocated against your will. Perhaps if your need was great enough the Red Cross may be helpful, but trusting any agency at this point would be risky.
National Guard -
When the guard gets called in, things are getting real serious. This will most like occur in the urban areas that go completely ape shit crazy. If the National Guard happens to roll through, best to get out of the way or worst just ignore them and hope they don't notice you. If you're not in a hot spot, you're not going to see them in action, so I'd believe they are no immediate threat in our area when they are called in. However, this is probably the sign to bug out, even if it is just a camping trip you will return safely from.
Armed Services -
In a WWIII or other war time scenario, the armed services are going to be pretty busy and so doubtfully much of a factor in most domestic issues. If there were a domestic crisis that required armed services, then we are truly screwed. In those cases the army would get called in to protect vital infrastructure like ports, border crossings, highways, and other important areas. Unless you're near a base or in an active hot spot, the army shouldn't be an issue, at first. Once things begin to calm down and the government has regained control, the armed forces would then be freed up to pacify the rural areas. Unless you're already way back there and out of sight, the last minute bug out would be when the armed forces first become involved.
I start off listing and describing the most likely scenarios to prep for and end with a general threat analysis afterward. I don't have the means or inclination to go all out in my preps, so I conclude with a basic minimal plan. It is an incomplete outline, so feel free to suggest anything I haven't covered. I'm not including any list for prep items at this point, but feel free to chime in on that subject as well.
Possible Scenarios and Threat Analysis for Emergency Disasters
Natural Disasters
Hurricanes, Tsunamis, Storms and Floods -
Based on Hurricane Katrina data, 90 percent of the New Orleans city population (pop. of 1,337,726 in 2000) obeyed evacuation orders, they had the means to leave and a place to go to. Based on the 2000 census, over one million people left the area as refugees before the storm hit (as many as 1,200,000). A large number of the remaining 10 percent were the holdouts trapped at home or in shelters. By the day before the storm, over 100,000 people remained in the city, with 20,000 taking shelter at the Louisiana Superdome, meaning at least one fifth (20%) of those not evacuated took public shelter. Of the 80% remaining holdouts, many engaged in looting and other criminal acts.
The evacuation orders began just two days before Katrina hit shore. The local citizens started preparing just 3 or 4 days before the storm hit. After the storm, most of the city's major roads were damaged. The only route out of the city was east on the Crescent City Connection bridge. Hurricane survivors who attempted to escape from New Orleans by walking over the Crescent City bridge over the Mississippi River were turned back at gunpoint by City of Gretna Police, along with Crescent City Connection Police and Jefferson Parish Sheriff's deputies, who set up a roadblock on the bridge in the days following the hurricane.
When New Orleans had widespread flooding, it was without power and had catastrophic damage in some residential and business areas. All local television stations were disrupted. Many telephones, including most cell phones, and Internet access were out because of line breaks, destruction of base stations, or power failures. However, the Internet became an important means of communicating information to evacuees with news networks citing blogs for their reports. Amateur radio operators provided tactical and emergency communications and handled health-and-welfare enquiries. By one week later, a temporary communications hub was set up at the Hyatt Hotel in downtown New Orleans.
In the aftermath, looting was widespread with many reported instances being survivors scavenging necessary supplies such as food, water, clothing, and shelter. Most of the looting was taking place in full view of passing National Guard trucks and police cruisers. There were also reports of violence, shooting against rescuers, murder and rape.
In one instance there was the emptying of an entire Walmart. At a Walgreen’s in the French Quarter, people were running out with grocery baskets and coolers full of soft drinks, chips and diapers. On Canal Street, the main thoroughfare in the central business district, people looted several clothing and jewellery stores.
Some instances of looting were found to have been carried out by a number of NOPD officers. At a drug store on Canal St, two police officers with pump shotguns stood guard as workers from the Ritz-Carlton Hotel across the street looted laundry bins full of medications, snack foods and bottled water. “This is for the sick,” Officer Jeff Jacob said. “We can commandeer whatever we see fit, whatever is necessary to maintain law.”
One-third of New Orleans police officers deserted the city in the days before the storm, many of them escaping in department-owned patrol cars, stretching law enforcement thin. Several NOPD officers were arrested weeks after Katrina for vehicle theft. Reports documented numerous instances of police opening fire on citizens during the flooding, and 16 officers have been charged with crimes, including the shooting deaths of three people. Two days after the storm, New Orleans's 1,500-member police force was ordered to abandon search and rescue missions and turn its attention toward controlling the widespread looting. The city also ordered a mandatory curfew.
Droughts and wildfires -
Droughts and wildfire are a real concern in our area. Droughts will disrupt argiculture, reduce harvests, cause wild life to migrate to available water sources, and promote wildfires. Fires without permit are the most likely risk and common with people burning leaves and using a burn bin, in additon to making bonfires and campfires. Summer through fall is higher risk with dry conditions and more people out camping. Our area is densely wooded so with the build up of brush, leaves and debris, it makes for prime wildfire country. The Jackpine forests nearby are naturally prone to wildfires driving the risks even higher.
If a wildfire occurred in our area, we would face an eminent threat requiring an immediate bug out. The best bet would be using the vehicle to bug out carrying along the three weeks of supplies. Your back pack should be included and available in the vehicle to walk away from the fire if necessary. If there is time before bugging out, bury important items for later retrieval.
Preventative measures like clearing trees, brush, leaves and debris from around your home should be taken long before hand. Keep preps ready and store other important items safely in fire proof conditions. Having a radio/scanner to monitor the local fire fighters is a must.
Earthquakes -
Earthquakes in our area are few and of very low intensity. A major earthquake is almost completely out of the question for the Great Lakes area, however, if the New Madrid Fault line down south of us lets loose, there would be minor damages in Michigan. If there is an influx of refugees, it would take as little as a week or as much as a month to relocate to other areas with few going this far north.
A large earthquake would disrupt the electrical grid and communications. Travel in and out of affected areas would be difficult. Other disruptions would occur depending on what area was hit and how hard it was hit.
Solar Coronal Mass Ejection Electro-Magnetic Pulse
A solar coronal mass ejection EMP would be predicable unless the event suddenly erupted on the earth facing side of the sun. If a powerful CME occurs on the Sun's equator farthest on it's rotation from facing the earth, given the Earth revolves around the Sun in the same direction, we would have more than 25 days for the earth to be hit. Of course, a CME causing a powerful solar EMP is unpredictable and could hit the Earth any anytime with little or no warning. NASA could issue a "CME Watch" warning with an hour's notice at best.
"A CME will shoot pretty much straight out from the Sun, and there’s always a good chance that the Earth won’t end up in its path. If a CME is coming straight at us, it’ll first hit NASA’s ACE satellite . . . roughly a million miles in front of the Earth. If that happens, we’ve got anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour before a cloud of plasma rains down from above . . ."
If a CME (or HANE - see below) created a massive EMP, power would be out and complete repairs would take years. Almost everything with electronics will get damaged beyond use unless they have been protected by a "Faraday Cage" or other grounded shielding. Any wiring will be fried, including your house wiring, so anything plugged in the wall socket will fry. Most vehicles will need repairs to function. It is likely that a massive CME would have some warning signs (like increased solar activity) early enough to take protective measures days in advance.
The Carrington Event
"The ground currents induced by large geomagnetic storms can melt the copper windings of transformers that lie at the heart of power distribution systems. If this happens, it can lead to massive power outages. And because our power grid has grown much more interconnected over time, the effects of such an outage today could be spread far and wide."
The lights would of course go out, as would the internet, and any device that draws current from the wall. In places with electronically-controlled municipal water supplies — like most modern cities — toilets and sewage treatment systems would stop working. Heating and AC would fail. Perishable food and medication would be lost. ATMs would be useless. Gas pumps would go offline . . . GPS technology would also be knocked out. Said Grunman" (Disabled Satellites)
Note: See High Altitude Nuclear Explosion EMP below for more information.
Man Made Disasters
Economic collapse -
A good example of an economic collapse is the current situation in Venezuela that has been on going for over ten years now. The following time line of events illustrates the Venezuelan crash and then compares it to the U.S. (I posted this here before in it's own thread.)
The Venezuelan government creates over budget projects that fail and end up causing big problems for the people due to bad planning, mismanagement and corruption.
They shift the blame on political opponents and even the citizens. They make it the citizen's problem to deal with through draconian laws and other measures while doing little or nothing to address the real causes of these problems. Such measures include disarming the citizens to prevent the growing public unrest from becoming an armed revolt.
After the shit hits the fan, the government of Venezuela increases the propaganda and blames a foreign country (the U.S.A. no less) and continues to deflect from the real source of the blame. All the while they continue to do nothing to fix the problems.
When things get really out of hand and the propaganda no longer works, the government brings out more lies, and gives the call to "remain calm" while they confiscate food from the people by force and redistribute it to the government, military and police.
With out of control inflation, supply lines broken down, and food riots the daily routine for the common citizens, the Venezuelan government turns to forced labor laws to enslave the able bodied population.
Total collapse, violent revolution, martial law, intervention by foreign powers, or invasion is all that I can see as the end results that can be expected after this point. And it looks like the U.S. is about halfway through that list right now.
It's obvious the United States acquired a national debt of 19+ trillion through mismanagement and corruption. I don't see solutions coming out of Washington DC soon.
Blaming the problems on political opponents, have at look at the election politics lately. The federal government isn't reducing any laws, just pumping out more to stifle the economy and reduce our freedoms. There is only more talk about gun bans and eliminating the 2nd amendment, but it's not quite there yet.
Our government is in another cold war with Russia, plus we still have China and N. Korea along with the usual suspects in the war on terror to deflect blame. All the while our government does next to nothing to fix the domestic problems.
A nation wide gun ban and confiscation is the next step before we start down through the rest of that list. If the timing is similar, then we only have about 3 to 5 years before we find we are slaves to our government.
War with world superpower -
High Attitude Nuclear Explosion EMP
The biggest threat HANE poses to our infrastructure is to our power grid. The world is coated with a mesh of power wiring, stretching over hundreds of miles of land . . . Local substations would burn out, street lighting would fry, circuit breakers would pop, and fuses would blow . . . The servers that host anything worth accessing would be down anyway, and it’d be likely that you couldn’t boot your PC or charge your laptop, due to lack of power. Even when sections of the power grid come back online, the demand would be massive, causing further outages and brown-outs.
According to a review for the US Energy Research and Development Administration, EMP damage was recorded almost a thousand miles away:
“Starfish produced the largest fields of the high-altitude detonations; they caused outages of the series-connected street-lighting systems of Oahu (Hawaii), probable failure of a microwave repeating station on Kauai, failure of the input stages of ionospheric sounders and damage to rectifiers in communication receivers. Other than the failure of the microwave link, no problem was noted in the telephone system.” (land line?)
"A high-altitude detonation of moderate strength (yield) is capable of producing field amplitudes of up to 50,000 volts per metre at ground levels, over a diameter of thousands of miles, as illustrated in Fig. 3. This field couples into all metallic structures (pipes, wires, rain gutters and especially antennas) and may burn out sensitive front-end electronic components or at least cause internal disruptions to normal operation."
Internet Hacking Attacks
This is a current concern for our government and information can change daily. More information is needed here, but it can be safe to assume that the infrastructure damage can be as serious as an EMP or massive storm.
Civil unrest, rebellions, and domestic war -
Riots are local events that occur in certain areas due to a specific issue. The main thing about a riot is that there is a large gathering of people and something touches it off. Riots could grow to become a regional rebellion that in turn could become an all out civil war. The 1968 riots caused by the assassination of Dr Martin Luther King, occurred in 10 major cities and lasted a total of ten days.
A riot can flare up in an afternoon and consume a whole city by the following day. Local law enforcement will be on scene first followed shortly after by the National Guard. By day four the military will be showing up. Rioting normally lasts a day or two but can last up to a week before order is restored. Although a riot can happen almost anywhere, they occur often at sporting events and in urban areas with racial tensions.
A rebellion can be nothing more than a local riot that lasts a day or two, or it could be regional and could go for months or more than a year. It's possible that there are few causalities or, if large enough, many may be killed. Services in the locality or the region of a rebellion will be disrupted to the degree of the level of unrest.
During the 1990 Native American Oka Crisis, I was in contact with a local native that had helped transport supplies across to Canada. I was told that one strategy might be to loosen the bolts on the high tension electrical service towers, causing them to topple and shut down the grid. It is relatively easy for a rebel to damage fiber optic cables, phone lines and cell towers to shut down communications. At the very least the area in conflict will be a no-go area with major roads being blocked by insurgents as well as law enforcement and the military. Martial law will be instated regionally or if the rebellion is large enough, nationally.
A domestic war would be based on some political issue(s) to become a race or class war, or anti-establishment war that ultimately becomes a civil war or revolution. A rebellion that grows into an internal war would be potentially long lasting with high casualties and massive infrastructure damage. For gauging what to expect in such a scenario, the U.S. Civil War is the best example of such a hardcore domestic war.
It may be necessary to pick sides in a civil war scenario or become a refugee in another country. The closest and most logical country to relocate to would be Canada as a war refugee. At that point your legal status would be world refugee making you entitled to a citizen of the world type passport, free to travel to any other country.
Terrorist attacks -
Unless well planned, coordinated and funded, most terror attacks are smaller scale localized events. Depending on what terror groups announce what their next plans are, a terror attack can be any number of targets involving any level of destruction and loss of life.
The best strategy is to stay away from events with big crowds or areas that are known targets. Airports, train or subway stations, and large entertainment venues are typical targets lately. Government buildings and properties as well as any factories that supply them should also be shunned. Common sense should keep most people safe from a terror attack.
Destructive accidents & declining infrastructure -
There are a number of large scale accidents that could disrupt our lives and some that go FUBAR. It seems to be a trend lately for trains to derail or crash, pipelines to burst or leak, and companies that "accidentally" release hazardous materials.
Damages to the oil and gasoline supply infrastructure leads to regional shortages and price spikes. Damage to the electrical infrastructure can take out service in numerous states at the same time. A train derailment or hazardous materials leak and cause evacuations or even relocation at a local level.
It seems that one cause is that profit margins and tight budgets lead to less expenditures on safety checks and preventative maintenance. Another contributing factor is the cutting of corners on cheaply produced products and materials from overseas. This is causing a rash of recalls on big ticket items like automobiles and appliances made dangerous by design.
Combination Disasters
I've done no research into this area yet.
Threat Analysis
Regardless if the disaster is man made, natural, or both, some things can be certain to happen. With large local or regional disasters, disruptions will last for as little as a week or a far longer time in extreme events. If there is a call to evacuate, be ready to leave the area early. Outside of widespread infrastructure damage, the main concern with our area is from local threats first and then getting over run with refugees and a government presence. Initially, such a government presence would likely involve local law enforcement and emergency services, then the National Guard and finally a military presence.
Local Threats:
The first priority threat would be the dangers associated with a large scale infrastructure damaging disaster and it's effects. Outside of the obvious dangers, human beings pose the next greatest threat in an emergency crisis.
Locally, things could turn ugly fast, likely starting with food riot events at grocery stores, when people rush to buy needed supplies once it becomes clear there is a disaster. When this occurs, looting and vandalism will quickly follow with homes becoming targeted a day or two after local stores have been ransacked and emptied. This may afford up to a 3 day window to get ready for trouble.
Not many friends and neighbors can be trusted or relied upon in a disaster. Those who choose to continue to be civilized and follow law and order can be considered true Civilians. If things got bad enough, criminally minded residents would become completely lawless. These Outlaws would try to take advantage of the situation immediately. After a time, perhaps a week, self preservation would begin to influence the normally law abiding but unprepared citizens.
Desperation would then turn them to crime and they would become dangerous Desperados.
Most local outlaws and desperados will likely cause trouble within a few miles of where they live. Knowing the area and the residents well, they would likely be thieves that come in the night. However, if organized they would become Gangsters, the home raiding invaders and/or protection racketeers demanding money or goods.
Another consideration is rogue law enforcement officers (Rogue LEOs), those officers who engage in illegal activities or operate under extreme or unconstitutional orders. Based on Katrina, one third of the local police force may flee from their duties and become AWOL LEOs. Note: Hurricane Katrina was a disaster that people had close to a week to prepare for. If a disaster hits without warning, it could take a little longer for these things to occur and probably in smaller numbers at first.
Depending on your proximity to hot spots, you may have 1 to 3 days to bug in properly and have your exit strategy ready to roll. If prepared enough, there may be enough time to organize with your neighbors and extend security measures for bugging in your immediate community. A crisis/disaster emergency would be the prefect situation to try to convince friends and neighbors to organize and become Allies.
It is extremely important to plan organizing locals ahead of time, but it may take the shit to start hitting the fan before you would be taken seriously. Personally make plans for organizing the community anyway and talk to the prepper types before the crisis. If you're plans are solid, your friends and neighbors are more likely to listen and contribute to the plan.
There may be a last minute opportunity to do some shopping, but only at the least likely stores to get mobbed. It would be a good idea to stop by the local sporting goods or hardware stores first for extra ammo and bug-out supplies. Other stores would be the local farmer's co-op, farmer's market or a local farmer that sells food like eggs and produce. Having a good inventory of prepping goods at home will help determine what supplies may be needed at the last minute.
Regional Threats:
Refugees. Grand Rapids, Detroit and Chicago would be the first big cities to begin relocating here if there were emergency disasters in their areas. Considering how things progress in areas hit by hurricanes, the time that refugees begin arriving in our area may be about one to three days. Based on traffic tie ups after evacuations during hurricane Floyd, at the very least, a drive would take four or more hours from Grand Rapids and sixteen plus from Detroit or Chicago. Note: It's important to remember that the hurricane refugees had at least a few days warning. Sudden disasters that come without warning would likely increase travel times with a lower volume of refugees.
Initially, in the urban areas, there would be a large number of people making a mad scramble to the stores with some people leaving the area just ahead of the traffic jams. I would suspect that wealthy people, survivalists, preppers, hunters and outdoors men, would be the first to leave ahead of the pack. This First Wave, would probably keep heading north with only a small percentage of those (mostly who own recreational properties here) staying in the area.
Depending on the time of year, many Retirees (we call snow birds) would be either in their winter homes down south, or here for the summer. Those people are better known in the community and are not a threat but are more vulnerable and potentially victims. Snow birds would be south around 6 months, November through April, and here for the other 6 months, May through October.
With huge traffic jams slowing the exodus from the cities, the normally 45 minute drive from Grand Rapids would become many hours long. I would think that the mostly under prepared refugees would be in our area as early as four hours after a disaster and keep coming for about 3 days after that until the government steps in and tries to control the situation in the cities. People from as far away as Detroit and Chicago would start to arrive in about a day and would be less predictable than the GR refugees.
If bugging out is absolutely necessary, then you have about 3 hours to prepare to leave and get a little head start on the first wave of refugees. If bugging in seems more likely, you have around 3 days to get fully prepared. You should have a bare minimum of threes weeks supplies at home to bug in or to be ready to bug out with the car.
Local Government:
Local and state law enforcement (LEO) and emergency services (EMS) would kick in immediately but likely be too overwhelmed to help outside of priority events. This leaves a potential lawless gap during the time it takes for larger government agencies to gain control. In the cities, that initial lawless gap would last three or more days with rural areas taking somewhat longer.
The main consideration here is with the police, emergency and fire departments being overloaded with calls and unable to give you proper assistance. Expect to handle any of the situations that require these services. Another possible threat is rogue LEOs who engage in criminal activity or who are under unconstitutional orders. It would be best to avoid the police and give them as little information as possible when you can't avoid them.
Federal Government:
Any need for the Federal Government to get involved in a crisis is a huge "reg flag" sign. When the Feds, the Guard or the Army shows up to the party, it is time to "go on the camping trip".
Federal Agencies -
Federal agencies like FEMA, the CDC, or even the U.S. Forest Service are to be avoided. If you are in a good position to remain safe, don't go to them, it could mean getting relocated against your will. Perhaps if your need was great enough the Red Cross may be helpful, but trusting any agency at this point would be risky.
National Guard -
When the guard gets called in, things are getting real serious. This will most like occur in the urban areas that go completely ape shit crazy. If the National Guard happens to roll through, best to get out of the way or worst just ignore them and hope they don't notice you. If you're not in a hot spot, you're not going to see them in action, so I'd believe they are no immediate threat in our area when they are called in. However, this is probably the sign to bug out, even if it is just a camping trip you will return safely from.
Armed Services -
In a WWIII or other war time scenario, the armed services are going to be pretty busy and so doubtfully much of a factor in most domestic issues. If there were a domestic crisis that required armed services, then we are truly screwed. In those cases the army would get called in to protect vital infrastructure like ports, border crossings, highways, and other important areas. Unless you're near a base or in an active hot spot, the army shouldn't be an issue, at first. Once things begin to calm down and the government has regained control, the armed forces would then be freed up to pacify the rural areas. Unless you're already way back there and out of sight, the last minute bug out would be when the armed forces first become involved.
