The Obamacare Super Court decision comes very soon...
May 25, 2015 20:52:25 GMT -6
Nugget, dirkgently, and 5 more like this
Post by Deleted on May 25, 2015 20:52:25 GMT -6
Unfortunately, we can safely say that either way this goes, it is a lose/lose. To see Obamacare removed for the scourge it is? There is only ONE way it can happen now, because there IS no "repeal". There is no "back" to return to. We have Obamacare at the expense of the fundamental core of the old system. So....we want change? It has to collapse.
..or like the song goes, 'Go Through Hell To Get To Heaven'...
Very simply explained on this, as something I've been following closely from the start? It comes down to a pretty simple matter of law, and by law alone, we're screwed. Those states that established their own exchanges by the deadline got themselves subsidies as a carrot. Those who did not, were threatened with the stick of NO subsidy, making the rates ridiculously high.
The Feds, in 2009, believed the threat would be enough to make a majority of states comply. They assumed in a way to remind us all once again, what the roots are in the word assume "ass (out of) u (and) me".
Over half the states said NO. Some, like my own state of Missouri, actually went so far as to pass a State Constitutional amendment forbidding by law, any cooperation or use of public money to establish or cooperate with a health care exchange......as well as making it a violation of state law to try and fine a resident here for non-compliance with the Obamacare provisions.
The problem tho, as I said, there is no outcome anyone can call a win. Only a lose with meaning vs. one without. Without the subsidies, monthly rates people feel good about now will be starting at many hundreds a month, with a good % of the lower end plans running over $1,000 a month when all is included, and depending on the state. I looked over the 'personal medical landscape' dataset for the first year carefully to make secondary threads and a school presentation from. There have been two significant rounds of increases to balance the program since ....but even then, $1,000 wasn't a bad guesstimate as an average across the nation without subsidy.
This one looks like it'll be a nail biter to the end too, with no real clear sense of which way it goes. As the story also notes, if they support the subsidies and say they can remain, then the effect will be to accept Obamacare as more or less being settled law for this being the *BIG ONE* in pending cases. This is the one capable of tearing the heart out of Obamacare and triggering it's catastrophic collapse in a short period of time.
The system, by rights, needed ALL 50 states to be on board, with majority participation and full compliance to maintain fiscal sanity (which was a dumb ass thing to project or hope for...but that also defines most of Obamacare, doesn't it?). They can kinda limp along and bankrupt the nation to fill the gap, the way it is now...it seems....or they can lose, as this notes, up to 8 million of the paltry few that HAVE signed up ...taking out the last shaky pins holding up the balance sheets that still make any sense at all.
Source
...and so we shall know within a few weeks. Will our nation go into immediate and very shock-inducing changes, or will the jugglers be allowed to juggle a bit longer with the smoke and mirrors we're all in these days, to let this play out and fall apart in other ways?
My pessimism isn't strictly political either. The fiscal collapse of this particular house of cards has already begun......this ruling going against the subsidies will only accelerate it dramatically.
Hawaii’s health care collapse a bad omen for state Obamacare exchanges
More than half of state-funded obamacare exchanges scrapped or on verge of collapse
The 'patient' is in bad shape and circling the drain! Will the Super Court give Obama's legacy point the big flush down the sewer?
..or like the song goes, 'Go Through Hell To Get To Heaven'...
A Supreme Court ruling due in a few weeks could wipe out health insurance for millions of people covered by President Barack Obama's health care law. But it's Republicans — not White House officials — who have been talking about damage control.
A likely reason: Twenty-six of the 34 states that would be most affected by the ruling have Republican governors, and 22 of the 24 GOP Senate seats up in 2016 are in those states.
A likely reason: Twenty-six of the 34 states that would be most affected by the ruling have Republican governors, and 22 of the 24 GOP Senate seats up in 2016 are in those states.
Very simply explained on this, as something I've been following closely from the start? It comes down to a pretty simple matter of law, and by law alone, we're screwed. Those states that established their own exchanges by the deadline got themselves subsidies as a carrot. Those who did not, were threatened with the stick of NO subsidy, making the rates ridiculously high.
The Feds, in 2009, believed the threat would be enough to make a majority of states comply. They assumed in a way to remind us all once again, what the roots are in the word assume "ass (out of) u (and) me".
Over half the states said NO. Some, like my own state of Missouri, actually went so far as to pass a State Constitutional amendment forbidding by law, any cooperation or use of public money to establish or cooperate with a health care exchange......as well as making it a violation of state law to try and fine a resident here for non-compliance with the Obamacare provisions.
The problem tho, as I said, there is no outcome anyone can call a win. Only a lose with meaning vs. one without. Without the subsidies, monthly rates people feel good about now will be starting at many hundreds a month, with a good % of the lower end plans running over $1,000 a month when all is included, and depending on the state. I looked over the 'personal medical landscape' dataset for the first year carefully to make secondary threads and a school presentation from. There have been two significant rounds of increases to balance the program since ....but even then, $1,000 wasn't a bad guesstimate as an average across the nation without subsidy.
Oral arguments on March 4 revealed a divided court. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy seemingly are key to the outcome, which won't be known until late June.
If the subsidies survive, the Affordable Care Act will look like settled law to all but its most passionate opponents. But if they are overturned, the shock could carry into next year's elections
If the subsidies survive, the Affordable Care Act will look like settled law to all but its most passionate opponents. But if they are overturned, the shock could carry into next year's elections
This one looks like it'll be a nail biter to the end too, with no real clear sense of which way it goes. As the story also notes, if they support the subsidies and say they can remain, then the effect will be to accept Obamacare as more or less being settled law for this being the *BIG ONE* in pending cases. This is the one capable of tearing the heart out of Obamacare and triggering it's catastrophic collapse in a short period of time.
The system, by rights, needed ALL 50 states to be on board, with majority participation and full compliance to maintain fiscal sanity (which was a dumb ass thing to project or hope for...but that also defines most of Obamacare, doesn't it?). They can kinda limp along and bankrupt the nation to fill the gap, the way it is now...it seems....or they can lose, as this notes, up to 8 million of the paltry few that HAVE signed up ...taking out the last shaky pins holding up the balance sheets that still make any sense at all.
The health law was designed as a balancing act. Insurers can't turn people away because of health problems, but most healthy people are required to contribute to the insurance pool, and the government subsidizes most of the premium for low- to middle-income households.
Take away subsidies, and the other two parts become unstable.
Take away subsidies, and the other two parts become unstable.
...and so we shall know within a few weeks. Will our nation go into immediate and very shock-inducing changes, or will the jugglers be allowed to juggle a bit longer with the smoke and mirrors we're all in these days, to let this play out and fall apart in other ways?
My pessimism isn't strictly political either. The fiscal collapse of this particular house of cards has already begun......this ruling going against the subsidies will only accelerate it dramatically.
Hawaii’s health care collapse a bad omen for state Obamacare exchanges
More than half of state-funded obamacare exchanges scrapped or on verge of collapse
The 'patient' is in bad shape and circling the drain! Will the Super Court give Obama's legacy point the big flush down the sewer?
(They don't get off, and get screwed worse...dollar for dollar. Of course, they are where discretionary income starts to exist these days, so can endure what will destroy many others)
